Observation and Experiment in the Natural and Social by Maria Carla Galavotti

By Maria Carla Galavotti

Commentary & scan within the usual & Social Sciences . . Springer, 2003 .

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Math. Computation 19: 297–301. Du Bois-Reymond, E. 1848. Untersuchungen über Thierische Elektricität. Berlin: Verlang von G. Reiner. Passage quoted translated by Hebbel E. Hoff, “Galvani and the PreGalvanic Electrophysiologists”. Annals of Science 1 (1936), 157–172. Fine, A. 1982. “Hidden Variables, Joint Probability, and the Bell Inequalities”. Physical Review Letters 48: 291–295. Galison, P. 1987. How Experiments End. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Galvani, L. 1791. “De Viribus Electricitatis in Motu Musculari”.

What is the probability that the director and the chauffeur are in the office? The assertion has the mental models: Director Director Secretary Chauffeur and so reasoners should respond, 50%. The fully explicit models of the assertion are as follows: Director Director Secretary ¬ Secretary ¬ Chauffeur Chauffeur They support the same inference, and so it is an unbiased estimate. We carried out an experiment that investigated a set of nine experimental problems and nine control problems. The results corroborated the model theory’s predictions (see Johnson-Laird et al.

Where is the number of models containing A, and n is the number of models. Proportionality predicts that a description, such as: The director or her secretary, or both of them, are in the office, is compatible with three possibilities, which will each be assigned a probability of 1/3. An analogous principle applies to numerical probabilities: 3. The numerical principle: If assertions refer to numerical probabilities, then their models can be tagged with the appropriate numerical values, and an unknown probability can be calculated by subtracting the sum of the remaining known probabilities from the overall probability of all the possibilities in the partition.

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